According to S&P Global, the U.S. labor market is experiencing a soft landing with unemployment stabilizing around 4.4% and hiring is mellowing to around 0-50,000 jobs per month. S&P Global indicates a market peak in 2026 to 4.5% due to reduced migration and lower demand, with job growth in the 2nd Quarter (April, May, June) of 2026 being expected to remain slow.
It is estimated the payroll gains are expected to remain low, amid slowing economic growth and labor force constraints.
With a weak start to 2026, a minor recovery is hopeful in job industries like CONSTRUCTION, HEALTH CARE and LEISURE….although taking it with a grain of salt, the growth will most likely remain muted.
LOWER TURNOVER – the “quit rate” remains near historic lows, suggesting that workers are reluctant to leave their current jobs due to concerns about finding a new job.
To learn more about Official Monthly Employment Updates, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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